CA LCC Project

Confronting uncertainty in species distribution projections

Project Information

The CA Academy of Science & PRBO Conservation Science propose a systematic analysis of uncertainty in modeling the future distributions of ~50 California endemic plant species and ~50 California land birds, explicitly partitioning among 5 alternative sources of variation and testing for their respective contributions to overall variation among modeled outcomes. They will map the uncertainty from identified sources, which can guide decisions about monitoring, restoration, acquisition, infrastructure, etc., in relation to climate change.

Full Proposal Title: 
Confronting uncertainty in species distribution projections: Increasing the applicability of an essential tool in climate change adaptation planning
Project Lead: 
Healy Hamilton, hhealyh@gmail.com
Lead Organization:
Partner Organizations:
Status: 
Completed
Starting Date: 
2011-07
Ending Date: 
2015-07
Total LCC Funding: 
100000
Total Matching or In-Kind Funds: 
233400
Attachments
Proposals: 
PDF icon 2011 Proposal $100,000
Reports: 
PDF icon Project Summary Report - September 2013
File List of plant and bird species used in the study

Products of this project

Titlesort descending Deliverable Type Release Date Commons Catalog Record or External Link
Maps of community turnover, changes in species richness, and the uncertainty underlying these synthetic analyses. Datasets / Database Mar 2014
Distribution maps of ensemble averages and standard deviations for each species modeled future bioclimatic envelope Datasets / Database Mar 2014 Dataset
Manuscript for peer - reviewed publication Publication Dec 2014
Spatial data layers demonstrating the proportion of variation explained by each source of uncertainty tested. Datasets / Database Dec 2014