Projected Bird Species Distribution

Projected future environmental suitability from a Maxent model (v3.3.3a; Phillips and Dudik 2008) for a particular bird species in California based on avian occurrence data (1992-2006), PRISM bioclimatic variables, Caifornia Gap Analysis vegetation class, and stream distance. Several climate based variables were developed as inputs to the species models. Current climate data were based on monthly climate means from the PRISM dataset averaged for 1971 - 2000. Future climate projections are based on Regional Climate Model runs (Snyder and Sloan 2005) driven by one of two global climate models (GCMs) using the IPCC A2 emissions scenario: GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Climate Model averaged for the years 2038-2070 (GFDL CM2.1; 478-615 ppm CO2); and CCSM - National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 2.1 averaged for 2038-2069 (NCAR CCSM3.0; 478-610 ppm CO2).